"Lub voj voog xa khoom ntawm transformers hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau tshaj 120 lub lis piam, thiab lawv cov nqi tau plaub npaug; nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe, kev txiav txim tau nce siab los ntawm 95%, tab sis lawv tau daig nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem ntawm 'muaj kev thov tab sis tsis muaj peev xwm tsim tau' - tom qab lub ntiaj teb transformer tsis txaus, kev tsim khoom hauv Suav teb yog tus yuam sij los daws qhov teeb meem. "
I. Ntiaj teb Transformer Shortage: Lub hauv paus ua rau lub voj voog xa khoom 3-xyoo thiab 40% Tus nqi nce
Kev tsis sib haum xeeb loj ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, nrog kev xav tau nce ntxiv: Kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog tshiab (cua zog, hnub ci zog) thiab kev kho dua tshiab ntawm daim phiaj hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntawm transformer. Kev nqis peev hauv ntiaj teb hluav taws xob hluav taws xob yuav tsum tshaj li 450 billion US las hauv 2025. Kev tsim kho ntawm ultra- high voltage power grids thiab hloov cov khoom qub (xws li tshem tawm cov transformers hauv qab S9 hauv Suav teb) tau tsim cov kev xav tau nruj. Kev xa khoom tsis txaus: Lub voj voog xa khoom ntawm cov hloov pauv hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau txuas ntxiv los ntawm 75 lub lis piam hauv 2022 txog 120 lub lis piam hauv 2025, thiab lub voj voog xa khoom ntawm lub ntsiab transformers tau nce ob npaug; Lub ntiaj teb muaj peev xwm sib txawv tshaj 100,000 MVA, nrog rau qhov xwm txheej tshwj xeeb hauv North America, Middle East, thiab Africa.
1. Kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab nce nqi ntawm silicon steel: Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov hlau nplaum sib nqus permeability taw qhia silicon steel (B23R075) mus txog 18,000 yuan / tuj hauv 2024, nce 40% los ntawm 2019, ncaj qha nce tus nqi ntawm transformers. Kev ncua sijhawm ntawm kev nthuav dav: Lub sijhawm tsim kho ntawm cov chaw ua haujlwm transformer yog 1-2 xyoos. Ua ke nrog kev nthuav dav qeeb ntawm silicon steel ntau lawm (lub peev xwm tshiab los ntawm Baowu Steel thiab lwm tus yuav tsis raug tso tawm kom txog rau thaum 2026), qhov kev xav tau ntawm qhov tsis sib xws yog qhov nyuaj rau kev daws teeb meem hauv lub sijhawm luv.
II. Tuam Tshoj Lub Peev Xwm Txheej Txheem: Qhov "Hard Hwjchim" Qab 35% Kev Sib Koom Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Export surges tawm tsam tus qauv, mus txog tshiab highs nyob rau hauv tus nqi: Nyob rau hauv 2024, Tuam Tshoj tus transformer export ntim tau tshaj 6.7 billion US dollars, ob npaug rau ntawm 2019; Hauv Q1 ntawm 2024, kev xa tawm kev loj hlob yog 30%, nrog rau 95% kev loj hlob ntawm European lag luam (8.1 billion xaj), thiab 49% kev loj hlob hauv South America. Kev hloov pauv siab tshaj plaws: Cov zis txhua xyoo ntawm qhuav{10}} hom hloov pauv (kev nyab xeeb siab, roj-dawb thiab ib puag ncig tus phooj ywg) yuav ncav cuag 380 lab kilovolt-amperes; Kev nkag mus ntawm cov cuab yeej ntse hloov pauv yuav nce los ntawm 28% hauv 2025 mus rau 65% hauv 2030, nrog rau qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm 30% -40%.
1. Dual qhov zoo ntawm kev siv tshuab thiab tus nqi: Advanced non-crystalline alloy technology: Tsis muaj-load poob ntawm Tuam Tshoj tsis yog-crystalline alloy hlau core transformers yog 50% qis dua li cov qauv thoob ntiaj teb, ua rau nws yog qhov kev xaiv zoo tshaj plaws rau kev hloov kho cov phiaj hluav taws xob hauv Europe thiab Asmeskas. Vertical kev koom ua ke rau kev txo nqi: Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam xws li TTE Electric tau ua tiav cov nqi txo los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov saw hlau (xws li tus kheej-tsim ntawm silicon steel), thiab lawv cov nqi tsim khoom yuav txo los ntawm 8%-10% tom qab 2026.
III. Nqe tau skyrocketed los ntawm 40%! Leej twg tau txais txiaj ntsig? Leej twg raug tshem tawm?
Suav tuam txhab lag luam tau txeeb thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam, nrog rau kev lag luam sib koom ntawm 35%: Suav transformers suav txog 35% ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab North America vam khom rau Suav cov khoom lag luam (suav txog 32% ntawm nws cov feem). TTE Electric cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws kev loj hlob yog 25%. Cov nqi sib tw tau zoo dua: Rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntse thiab cov qauv siv hauv lub zog tshiab (cua fais fab / pv transformers), tus nqi hwm yog 30% -40%, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho tau tshaj 25%.
1. Cov neeg tsim khoom txawv teb chaws nyob hauv txoj haujlwm tsis zoo. Hitachi Energy tau tshaj tawm lus ceeb toom: Vim tsis muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, kev xa khoom tau qeeb. Cov chaw tsim khoom hauv zos hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tau raug yuam los ntawm Tuam Tshoj vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov ntawv silicon steel thiab cov kev cai ib puag ncig (EU carbon ciam teb se).
IV. Yav Tom Ntej Trends: Los ntawm "Price War" mus rau "Technology War"
Ntsuab transformation accelerates: Tuam Tshoj txoj cai "carbon neutrality" yuam kom tshem tawm siab -zog- transformers, EU xav kom txo tau 30% carbon hneev taw, thiab tus nqi nkag ntawm cov roj zaub transformers yuav nce mus rau 35%.
Kev txawj ntse daim phiaj hloov tshiab: Digital ntxaib thev naus laus zis ua rau muaj kev twv twv ua txhaum, thaum AI kev ua haujlwm thiab kev saib xyuas (xws li "Tus Kws Kho Mob Ntsej Muag" ntawm Guangdong Huajing) txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis.
"Kev tsis txaus ntawm cov transformers yog ib qho kev sib tw, tab sis nws kuj yog ib lub sijhawm los txhim kho lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam saw - raws li Tuam Tshoj kev tsim khoom hloov pauv los ntawm 'tus nqi neeg tua tsiaj' mus rau 'txheej txheem thev naus laus zis', lub zog ntawm lub ntiaj teb daim phiaj hluav taws xob tam sim no nyob rau sab hnub tuaj txhais tes. "